Measuring the Impact of Livestock Exports on GDP during the Period 2010-2020 in Sudan

الملخص

This study is conducted to measure the impact of livestock exports on GDP during the period from 2010 to 2020 in Sudan. In fact, based on mathematical models, we predicted livestock exports and  we adopted the descriptive analytical approach in order to analyze the results using secondary data collected from the Ministry of Animal Resources and Fisheries and the Central Bank of Sudan for different years.

The study used the (linear regression model and some nonlinear models) Autoregressive Distributed Lag Mode methodology to investigate livestock export data (sheep - goats - camels - cows) and to find out the nature of the relationship between the variables of the study for the Sudanese economist, as well as relying on the standard approach to estimate the relationship and its nature between livestock exports and GDP in Sudan. the results supported the validity of the hypotheses of the study stating that there is a positive link between livestock exports and GDP.A set of economic models were  constructed to contain the best model with a given level of confidence which is the double logarithmic model  that leads to the best statistical standards and match its estimated features of economic theory after relying on the coefficient of determination - the significance of the model - the significance of the model parameters - standard problems - the number of factors or variables included in the model . The study reached a number of results, the most important of which is that there is a positive relationship between livestock exports (lamb - goat - camel - cow) and GDP which is explained by the fact that there is a very large convergence between the real and predicted values Thus, this finding indicates the quality of reconciling the logarithmic model to reconcile livestock exports data and GDP in Sudan and therefore can rely on the results of this study in addition to its recommendations for the purposes of analysis, policy evaluation and decision-making. The significant recommendation for this research is to develop laws that prevent the export of raw materials when minimal manufacturing infrastructure is available. We should give more attention to providing a network of permanent water sources and their access to the maximum areas of animal presence and improving the general infrastructure of road networks, transportation lines and services, which facilitates the access of veterinary care and extension services.